Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Deutsche Bank is Crashing

This isn't about Shampoo




If you're into stock market technicals, this is a classic 'Head and Shoulder' pattern. The chart is for Deutsche Bank which has a derivative exposure 20 times the GDP of Germany. 



Right now, Deutsche Bank stock is at historic lows and has lost 20% of its market cap in less than 2 weeks. The latest blow to the stock price is due to Merkel recently announcing there would be no bailout for DB. If Deutsche Bank does go down, it could trigger a domino effect that would negatively impact all central banks worldwide. Their derivative exposure is much worse than Lehman Brothers before its collapse in 2008 that triggered the last economic crisis. DB has also been fined billions of dollars since April 2016 for price rigging and other illegal activities.  Many analysts doubt that Deutsche Bank can unwind their derivative book on any time frame. Doesn't look good for DB and things may get worse in the coming days.

As bad as the above chart is, at least it isn't the dreaded "Vampire Duck" pattern.  :-0




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